What-if Scenarios

“Contrary to empirical techniques, scenarios have the important property that they can be generated and developed even before the situation they describe has been created.”

Hertzum, Morten. “Making Use of Scenarios: a Field Study of Conceptual Design.” International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, vol. 58, no. 2, 2003, pp. 215–239.

Definition

What-if scenarios are a method for collectively imagining the strengths and limitations of novel design concepts.

Context

Co-design and futuring

Procedure

1. First, I explored the design space by reflecting on my past experiences and conducting interviews with relevant participants.

2. Based on my research, I drew speculative scenarios on a large notecard with a catchy title, a picture, and a short description. It’s important that these sketches don’t feel too polished so participants aren’t intimidated.

3. Then, I had my participants draw on my cards and write out their own thoughts onto the scenarios.

Use Case

I used this method to explore new design concepts for managing our waste.

Through the practice of sketching out ideas, the what-if scenarios helped me conceptualize my ideas and share them with three other people. It was important that I recruited participants that had experience with sustainability and resource management. One participant became excited when I showed him a scenario that reminded him of a project he was working on. The power of this technique is its ability to ignite conversation by giving people something to respond to.

It’s important to note that it can be hard to anticipate how people will react to the cards. Not everyone is comfortable drawing out their ideas. One way to handle this is by giving participants the option to simply write out their thoughts on the cards instead. I found this was an effective way of letting my participant’s voice their ideas. The pictures show an iteration of my what-if scenario, titled Uber Volunteer, and the comments people made.

Data Analysis

One of the best aspects of this method is that I was able to create data as I completed the method. I used a variety of different ways to capture and reflect on this data.

I found it helpful to record my sessions. That allowed me to go back and listen to what my participants said while they were using the what-if scenarios. I also took notes on any insights or observations I had.

It’s important to pay attention to how people feel about the concepts. I asked my participants to rank the scenarios from their most to least favorite. This revealed to me what worked and didn’t work about my concepts.

The data from what-if scenarios is a representation of our collective imagination, which can be used to inform the deployment of a real design.